Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Goldman Sachs·2025-04-06 14:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold while being cautious on oil and copper prices, reflecting a mixed investment rating across commodities [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the direct impact of announced and expected tariffs on US industrial metals and the indirect effect on commodities due to weaker global growth, leading to bearish oil and bullish gold sentiments [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the US reciprocal tariffs will primarily affect commodities through their negative economic growth impact rather than direct tariff imposition [3][6]. - The report suggests that the recent sell-off in gold presents an attractive entry point for long positions, supported by ongoing central bank buying and increased ETF demand amid recession fears [17]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on Commodities - Tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminum are expected to remain, with copper likely to be included later this year, while energy and gold are exempt from these tariffs [2][3][4]. - The report anticipates that the tariffs will have a significant indirect negative impact on global economic growth, which is expected to weigh on oil demand and prices [2][11]. Oil Market Outlook - The report has lowered its December 2025 Brent/WTI crude oil price forecasts to $66/$62 per barrel from $71/$67 previously, citing a larger-than-expected increase in oil supply from OPEC and reduced oil demand growth expectations [11][12]. - The report indicates that the risks to the oil price forecast are skewed to the downside, particularly for 2026, due to recession risks and increased OPEC+ supply [12]. Industrial Metals Analysis - The report maintains a cautious near-term view on copper prices, with potential for prices to dip below $9,000 per ton in 2Q2025 if retaliatory tariffs escalate [15]. - It notes that existing tariffs on steel and aluminum are likely to keep US industrial metals prices higher compared to the rest of the world, but the overall demand outlook remains weak [15]. Gold Market Insights - Following the recent tariffs announcement, gold prices have seen a modest decline, but the report views this as an opportunity for investors to establish long positions [16][17]. - The year-end forecast for gold is maintained at $3,300 per ounce, with a range of $3,250 to $3,520, indicating upside risks to the forecast [17].