KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) EBSCN·2025-04-07 01:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, also up 15.38% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous forecasts [1][2] - The company has set a rational and pragmatic target for 2025, aiming for a revenue growth of around 9%, which is expected to help adjust market supply and demand dynamics [4] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 145.93 billion yuan and 24.68 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 15.28% and 19.65% [2] - The sales volume and average price of Moutai liquor increased by 10.22% and 4.58% year-on-year, respectively, while the revenue for Q4 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 12.77% [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 91.93%, remaining stable year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 52.27%, reflecting stable profitability [3] - The company reported a cash collection from sales of 182.65 billion yuan, an increase of 11.57% year-on-year, and a net cash flow from operating activities of 92.46 billion yuan, up 38.85% year-on-year [3] Forecasts and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is set at 94.49 billion yuan, with a slight downward adjustment for 2026 to 103.05 billion yuan [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 75.22 yuan, 82.03 yuan, and 89.06 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 19, and 18 [5][4]