Roborock(688169) 华泰证券·2025-04-07 02:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 275.50 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.945 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.03%, but a net profit of 1.977 billion RMB, down 3.64% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue increase of 66.54% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 26.99% [1][2]. - The domestic "trade-in" policy and overseas market expansion contributed to strong revenue growth, although profitability was impacted by intensified competition in Europe and increased tariff costs in North America. The net profit margin is expected to stabilize in 2025, despite ongoing tariff risks from the U.S. [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Domestic sales revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.53 billion RMB, up 25.4% year-on-year, driven by the "trade-in" policy. Online sales of floor cleaning machines in Q4 increased by 87% year-on-year [2]. - Foreign sales revenue is expected to reach 6.34 billion RMB, a 51.1% increase year-on-year, due to the introduction of more cost-effective models. However, overseas gross margin decreased by 6.74 percentage points due to price competition and tariff costs [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 50.1%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower margins from new product lines and increased marketing expenses [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.035 billion RMB, 2.321 billion RMB, and 2.828 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 11.02 RMB, 12.57 RMB, and 15.31 RMB [4][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is transitioning its overseas channels to a "self-operated + distribution" model, successfully entering 1,398 Target and 900 Best Buy stores by the end of 2024. This expansion is expected to enhance growth potential in overseas markets in 2025 [2][3]. - The company’s global expansion strategy is showing results, with a projected average PE of 22x for comparable companies in 2025, while the company itself is given a PE of 25x, reflecting strong product capabilities [4][6].