KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-07 05:42Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The 2025 target set by Moutai establishes a stable growth baseline for the industry, with a focus on domestic consumption trends [2] - The overall performance of the liquor sector is currently weak, primarily due to base pressure and lack of significant demand recovery in the off-season [2] - The snack sector is experiencing strong growth, particularly in konjac products, which are expected to continue benefiting from high growth in the market [4] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of +0.07%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by -0.28% and the CSI 300 Index fell by -1.37% [23] - Notable sector performances include snacks (+7.17%), soft drinks (+6.48%), and beer (+3.56%), while white liquor experienced a decline of -0.71% [23] 2. Liquor Sector Insights - Moutai's 2024 revenue and net profit are projected at 170.90 billion and 86.23 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of +15.71% and +15.38% [2] - The liquor sector is expected to see valuation recovery driven by policy catalysts, with the current PE-TTM for the liquor index at 20X, which is relatively low compared to historical averages [2][14] 3. Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer sector is showing signs of improvement with a +3.6% increase, driven by rising temperatures and upcoming peak season demand [3] - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.14 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of -5.49% year-on-year, while Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 14.64 billion yuan, down -1.1% [3][15] 4. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The snack sector is leading in growth, particularly with konjac products, which have seen sales exceed 100 million yuan in March [4][16] - The overall consumer goods market is expected to benefit from domestic consumption growth amid trade tensions, with a focus on three investment themes: dining, overseas expansion, and dairy supply chain [4][16] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the liquor sector include strong alpha leaders like Moutai and Shunxin Agriculture, as well as cyclical beta stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiangsu Yanghe [21] - In the consumer goods sector, focus on dairy products and snack companies such as Yili, Mengniu, and Salted Fish [22]