海天味业（603288）：Q4保持稳健，完成“四五”开局

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.53%, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 6.502 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.03% and a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, growing 17.82% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.773 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 75.24% [6] - The company is expected to continue its diversified development strategy, enhancing its capabilities in product categories, channels, and international markets to support its long-term goals [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for the company from 2023 to 2027 is as follows: - 2023: 24.559 billion yuan - 2024: 26.901 billion yuan - 2025E: 29.367 billion yuan - 2026E: 31.803 billion yuan - 2027E: 34.132 billion yuan - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected to be -4.1% in 2023, 9.5% in 2024, 9.2% in 2025, 8.3% in 2026, and 7.3% in 2027 [5] - The net profit forecast for the same period is: - 2023: 5.627 billion yuan - 2024: 6.344 billion yuan - 2025E: 6.952 billion yuan - 2026E: 7.620 billion yuan - 2027E: 8.387 billion yuan - The projected year-on-year growth rates for net profit are -9.2% in 2023, 12.8% in 2024, 9.6% in 2025, 9.6% in 2026, and 10.1% in 2027 [5][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 34.7% in 2023 to 38.0% in 2027, driven by cost reductions [5][6] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from different product categories was as follows: - Soy sauce: 13.758 billion yuan (up 8.87%) - Seasoning sauce: 2.669 billion yuan (up 9.97%) - Oyster sauce: 4.615 billion yuan (up 8.56%) - Other products: 4.086 billion yuan (up 16.75%) [6] - The company’s sales volume for soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce increased by 11.63%, 13.47%, and 8.1% respectively in 2024 [6] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by volume increases, with the company increasing market investments to gain market share [6] Cost and Profitability - The company’s gross margin improved to 37% in 2024, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to cost reductions across major product categories [6] - The sales and management expense ratios were 6.05% and 2.19% respectively in 2024, indicating an increase in sales expenses by 25% year-on-year [6]