CBC(600132) 浦银国际·2025-04-07 06:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.CH) with a target price of RMB 69.2, representing a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of RMB 59.8 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the weak performance in Q4 2024 was primarily due to the company's proactive inventory clearance, which has now returned to a healthier level. The sales performance in Q1 2025 is expected to be stable, and the company is projected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024 due to a lower sales base in the second half of the year [1][5]. - The company is adjusting its product and channel structure, which is expected to lead to more positive changes by 2026. The growth of brands like Lebao and regional products is helping to balance the product mix, which has been heavily reliant on the high-end product "Wusu" [1][5][7]. - The report highlights a shift in sales channels, with the on-trade channel's share decreasing from 55% in 2019 to 44% in 2024. The company plans to continue expanding its off-trade channels in 2025, which will help mitigate the impact of declining foot traffic in on-trade channels [5][11]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025, the report forecasts a revenue of RMB 14,937 million, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year growth, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 1,157 million, a 3.8% increase from 2024 [7][9]. - The average selling price is projected to remain under pressure due to weak market demand for high-end beers, despite a favorable outlook on raw material costs [5][9]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including a projected gross margin of 42.1% for 2025, with a stable cost structure anticipated due to declining barley prices [7][10]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the company is focusing on enhancing its market share in key cities while maintaining a consistent number of cities covered in 2025. This strategy aims to deepen market penetration and improve brand visibility [5][11]. - The competitive landscape is highlighted, with the company facing challenges from market competition and the need to improve its product structure to sustain growth [5][9].