KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-07 07:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][17] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.4%, which aligns with market expectations [6] - For 2025, the revenue growth target is set at 9%, which is considered reasonable given the current state of the liquor consumption recovery [6] - The company aims to maintain stable pricing for its flagship products while optimizing product and channel structures to ensure continued growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 145.93 billion yuan and 24.68 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 15.3% and 19.7% [7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 92.1%, remaining stable compared to the previous year, while the net profit margin was 51.3% [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 76.10 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.6 [11][14] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for total revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 190.13 billion yuan, 209.33 billion yuan, and 226.08 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 10.1%, and 8.0% [11] - The net profit for the same period is expected to be 95.60 billion yuan, 105.87 billion yuan, and 114.41 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.9%, 10.7%, and 8.1% [11] Channel Structure Optimization - In 2024, the revenue from direct sales and wholesale channels was 74.84 billion yuan and 95.77 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 11.3% and 19.7% respectively [8] - The company is actively expanding its market presence through various channels beyond traditional distributors, including restaurants, supermarkets, and e-commerce [8]