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华新水泥(600801):中期海外市场提供确定性成长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 34.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.498 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.98% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 43.9% year-on-year to 1.28 billion yuan [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.6 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11 and 10 times [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 34.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.42 billion yuan [2][4]. - The company’s sales volume of cement and clinker was 60.27 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, while the aggregate sales volume reached 14.3 million tons, an increase of 9% year-on-year [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong presence in overseas markets, with operations in 12 countries, including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and several African nations, and has a cumulative operational and under-construction capacity exceeding 25 million tons [12]. - The company plans capital expenditures of approximately 13.3 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on aggregate and overseas cement capacity, as well as alternative fuel construction [12]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the aggregate business was 47.92%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points year-on-year, with an expected average price of 39 yuan per ton for aggregates in 2024 [12]. - The company achieved asset disposal gains of 750 million yuan in 2024, which significantly contributed to its performance [12].