CMOC(603993) 东北证券·2025-04-07 09:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2130.29 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135.32 billion yuan, up 64.03% year-on-year [1][4]. - The TFM and KFM copper-cobalt mines exceeded production expectations, with copper production reaching 650,200 tons, a 65.02% increase year-on-year, and cobalt production at 114,200 tons, up 105.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company is implementing a five-year plan aimed at significantly increasing production capacity, targeting annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons [3]. Financial Performance - The company's trading segment achieved a record profit margin of 2.08% in 2024, an increase from 1.99% in 2023, with IXM maintaining stable volume and profit growth [2]. - The estimated earnings per share for 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 0.76, 0.78, and 0.79 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio decreasing from 10.56 in 2024 to 8.28 in 2027 [4][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.55 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 40.32%, translating to a dividend yield of about 3.9% based on current A-share prices [3][4]. Production and Sales - The company’s copper sales volume for 2024 was 689,500 tons, a 76.89% increase year-on-year, while cobalt sales volume reached 108,900 tons, up 266.23% year-on-year [2]. - The production capacity for TFM and KFM has been fully realized, with TFM achieving an annual capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, while KFM continues to exceed production targets [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising copper prices, with the average LME copper price projected to be 9,269 USD/ton in 2024, an 8.7% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company has committed to maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of over 40% from 2024 to 2026, reflecting a strong focus on shareholder returns [3].