Milkground(600882) 华龙证券·2025-04-07 11:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [5] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 89.16% in 2024, despite a decline in revenue by 8.99% due to strategic contraction in trade business [5][7] - The cheese segment is a key focus, with revenue from cheese products growing by 14.03% in the restaurant industrial series, contributing to the overall performance [7] - The completion of the cheese asset injection from the controlling shareholder is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the cheese category [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.844 billion yuan, down 8.99% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 114 million yuan, up 89.16% [5] - The gross margin improved to 28.99%, an increase of 2.31 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material costs and the use of domestic raw materials [7] - The company’s net profit margin increased to 2.35%, reflecting improved profitability [7] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from cheese, trade, and liquid milk in 2024 was 3.757 billion yuan, 531 million yuan, and 401 million yuan, respectively, accounting for 80.12%, 11.32%, and 8.56% of total revenue [7] - The cheese segment consists of three product series: nutritional series, restaurant industrial series, and family table series, with revenues of 2.050 billion yuan, 1.313 billion yuan, and 395 million yuan, respectively [7] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.371 billion yuan, 5.978 billion yuan, and 6.725 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 10.88%, 11.30%, and 12.50% [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 215 million yuan, 280 million yuan, and 338 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 88.96%, 30.30%, and 20.95% [11] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected to be 56.6, decreasing to 35.9 by 2027 [11] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 2.6 in 2025 and decrease to 2.3 by 2027 [11]