Lier Chemical (002258) 国信证券·2025-04-07 13:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The global agricultural chemical destocking cycle is nearing its end, leading to a gradual stabilization in the company's revenue and profit levels. The company reported a revenue of 7.311 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 215 million yuan, down 64.34% year-on-year. However, the company achieved a net profit of 83 million yuan in Q4 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 89.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 113.98% [1][31][32]. - The demand for refined glyphosate is rapidly growing, and the company is accelerating its overseas formulation registrations. The company has completed registrations in eight countries and reported a significant increase in exports of glyphosate derivatives [2][38]. - The company is deepening cooperation with major clients and plans to acquire equity in Shandong Huimeng, which is expected to enhance its chlorinated pyridine and glyphosate business [3][43]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 73.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.15 billion yuan, down 64.34% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share were 0.27 yuan. The gross profit margin was 16.06%, down 7.28 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 4.08%, down 5.69 percentage points year-on-year [31][32]. - The company expects net profits for Q1 2025 to be between 145 million and 155 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.08% to 223.98% [32]. Market Dynamics - The agricultural chemical industry is transitioning from a destocking phase to a period of overcapacity, with many agricultural products experiencing price declines. The company is positioned to benefit as the destocking cycle concludes [21][23]. - The refined glyphosate market is expanding, with the company’s subsidiary achieving a net profit of 42.48 million yuan in 2024, demonstrating resilience in a challenging market [2][38]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a joint venture with its largest client, achieving significant revenue and profit margins that exceed the company's overall performance [3][41]. - The planned acquisition of Shandong Huimeng is expected to create synergies in the chlorinated pyridine and glyphosate supply chains, enhancing the company's competitive position [43]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts a gradual recovery in profits, with expected net profits of 4.02 billion, 5.19 billion, and 6.43 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][5].