CGN MINING(01164) 国信证券·2025-04-07 14:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 8.624 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.05%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 31.2% to 342 million HKD due to increased dividend withholding tax and fair value changes [8][20] - The increase in uranium prices has significantly boosted the company's pre-tax performance, but the net profit has decreased due to new tax regulations in Kazakhstan and losses from the exchange of shares with Paladin [8][20] - The average sales price of uranium is 75.04 USD/lb U3O8, while the average production cost has risen to 80.80 USD/lb U3O8, reflecting a 4 USD increase year-on-year [12][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 86.24 billion HKD, with a pre-tax profit of 8.14 billion HKD, marking a 48.3% increase year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 342 million HKD, a decrease of 31.2% [8][20] - The company's uranium trading revenue was 86.24 billion HKD, with a segment loss of 0.95 billion HKD. Investment income from other segments was 10.16 billion HKD, with significant contributions from Fission Uranium and Paladin [8][20] Production and Costs - The company self-traded 1,294 tons of uranium in 2024, maintaining production levels from the previous year. The production cost increased to an average of 80.80 USD/lb U3O8 due to rising raw material prices and increased underground resource usage tax [12][13] - The average production cost across mines rose to 24 USD/lb U3O8, primarily due to a supply shortage of sulfuric acid and increased taxes linked to higher sales prices [12][13] Market Trends - The spot price of natural uranium peaked above 100 USD/lb U3O8 at the beginning of 2024 but subsequently declined, with a 27.7% decrease in trading volume year-on-year. Long-term contract prices, however, showed a stable upward trend, rising from 58 USD/lb U3O8 to 80 USD/lb U3O8 [14][20] - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to declining spot prices and increased resource usage tax rates, projecting net profits of 635 million HKD, 785 million HKD, and 836 million HKD for 2025-2027 [20]