Tsingtao Brewery(600600) 长江证券·2025-04-07 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The external demand environment is challenging, yet the company remains committed to its strategic direction, continuously promoting product innovation and upgrades, with a positive price increase trend [2][7]. - In 2024, the company plans to enhance inventory management and maintain healthy channel operations, leading to expected improvements [2][7]. - Following the completion of the company's leadership transition, a new operational cycle is anticipated, with sales expected to reverse the current downward trend, and both average price and costs are likely to continue improving [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved total revenue of 32.138 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.81% [4]. - The company reported a dividend payout ratio of 69.07% for 2024, indicating a continuous increase in shareholder returns [4][7]. - The company's sales volume for 2024 was 7.538 million kiloliters, down 5.9% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter sales volume of 750,000 kiloliters, up 5.6% year-on-year [5]. Price and Cost Analysis - The average price per ton for 2024 was 4,263 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with a fourth-quarter price increase of 1.7% [5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 improved by 1.57 percentage points to 40.23%, while the net profit margin increased by 0.94 percentage points to 13.52% [6]. Future Outlook - The company expects a recovery in sales volume and price in 2025, supported by a stable demand environment and low inventory levels [5][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 3.68 yuan and 4.07 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 22x and 20x [7].