CHALCO(SH:601600) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-04-08 00:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a profit total of 62-67 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30%-40%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 34-36 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 53%-63% year-on-year [1] - The increase in profits is attributed to comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvements, along with a year-on-year increase in the production of key products [1] - The company aims to strengthen its competitive advantages across the entire industry chain through strategic initiatives, including market analysis, cost reduction, and efficiency enhancement [3] Summary by Sections Production and Pricing - In Q1 2025, the average price of alumina was 3,833 yuan/ton, up 15.2% year-on-year but down 28.1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company is ramping up production at its new 50,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Qinghai, which is expected to contribute to profit growth [2] Strategic Goals - The company is committed to achieving its strategic goal of becoming a world-class enterprise by enhancing operational efficiency, optimizing industrial layout, promoting technological innovation, and improving management structures [3] - The focus includes expanding into small metal industries such as gallium, lithium, and magnesium, and advancing towards digital and automated operations [3] Market Outlook - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is nearing its capacity ceiling of 45 million tons, while demand is expected to recover, potentially driving aluminum prices higher [4] - The report suggests cautious assumptions for the average prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina from 2025 to 2027, forecasting net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 14.9 billion yuan for those years, respectively [4] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2025 to 222.31 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16.3% [5] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including earnings per share (EPS) estimates and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the coming years [5]