Lier Chemical (SZ:002258) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-08 00:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][36]. Core Insights - The global agricultural chemical inventory destocking is nearing its end, leading to a gradual stabilization in the company's revenue and profit levels [36][23]. - The company has experienced a significant decline in net profit due to the global agricultural chemical destocking cycle and rapid capacity expansion in the glyphosate industry, resulting in decreased prices for most pesticide products [36][32]. - The demand for refined glyphosate is rapidly growing, and the company is accelerating its overseas formulation registrations, which is expected to help restore profitability [48][2]. - The company has strengthened cooperation with major clients and plans to acquire a stake in Shandong Huimeng, which is expected to enhance its chlorinated pyridine and glyphosate business [3][55]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.87%, and a net profit of 215 million yuan, down 64.34% year-on-year [36][4]. - The company expects a net profit of 1.45 to 1.55 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.08% to 223.98% [37][36]. - The company’s revenue and profit levels are expected to stabilize as the global agricultural chemical destocking cycle comes to an end [36][23]. Market Dynamics - The refined glyphosate market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company’s subsidiary achieving a net profit of 42.48 million yuan in 2024, demonstrating resilience in a challenging market [2][48]. - The company has completed registration for refined glyphosate formulations in eight countries, which is anticipated to support future profitability [48][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a joint venture with its largest client, achieving revenue of 566 million yuan and a net profit margin of 10.41%, higher than the company's overall margin [3][52]. - The planned acquisition of Shandong Huimeng is expected to create synergies in the chlorinated pyridine and glyphosate supply chains, enhancing the company's competitive position [55][3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 402 million yuan, 519 million yuan, and 643 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50, 0.65, and 0.80 yuan [5][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the agricultural chemical market, with the company expected to benefit from improved operational efficiencies and market conditions [36][23].