YIWU CCC(600415) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-08 01:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][14]. Core Views - The company has successfully transitioned from traditional trade to a digital trade ecosystem, entering a new phase of performance expansion driven by improved digital services and the opening of global trade centers. Emerging businesses such as digital trade platforms and cross-border payments are expected to inject long-term growth potential into the company [2][13]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative, with 61.8% of its trade contributions coming from countries involved in this initiative, while maintaining a low export ratio to the US [2][13]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 36.38 billion, 57.15 billion, and 68.37 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 12.7, and 10.6 respectively [2][14]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 31.61 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.93%, and a net profit of 8.03 billion yuan, up 12.66% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 7.95 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.14% increase [1][7]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 36.18%, a decrease of 2.87 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from last year's high-margin rental and location fee businesses [1][11]. - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 2.78 billion yuan in Q1, influenced by the high cash flow collection from rental and location fees in the same period last year, but the overall cash flow situation is expected to improve throughout the year [1][11]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 11,299.69 million yuan in 2023, 15,737.38 million yuan in 2024, 19,597.13 million yuan in 2025, 25,717.28 million yuan in 2026, and 31,764.42 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 48.30%, 39.27%, 24.53%, 31.23%, and 23.51% respectively [3][16]. - Net profit forecasts are 2,676.18 million yuan for 2023, 3,073.68 million yuan for 2024, 3,637.58 million yuan for 2025, 5,715.38 million yuan for 2026, and 6,837.25 million yuan for 2027, with growth rates of 142.25%, 14.85%, 18.35%, 57.12%, and 19.63% respectively [3][16].