YTL(000960) 国信证券·2025-04-08 01:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [3][15]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items, primarily due to rising tin prices, with an expected average tin price of approximately 248,300 CNY/ton in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [7][15]. - The company is the largest refined tin producer globally, holding a 25.03% market share worldwide and a 47.98% share in the domestic market for tin metal [2][14]. - The company aims to enhance its resource integration and production capabilities, targeting production goals of 90,000 tons of tin, 125,000 tons of copper, 131,600 tons of zinc, and 1,023 tons of indium by 2025 [9][15]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 41.973 billion CNY, a decrease of 0.91% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion CNY, an increase of 2.55% year-on-year [7][4]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 was 1.943 billion CNY, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 40.48% [7][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.9 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 313 million CNY, which accounts for 21.65% of the 2024 net profit [2][13]. Production and Resource Management - The total production of non-ferrous metals in 2024 was 361,000 tons, with tin production at 84,800 tons, copper at 130,300 tons, zinc at 144,000 tons, and indium at 127 tons, showing respective year-on-year increases of 6%, 0.77%, 6.90%, and 24.51% [9][14]. - The company maintains a self-sufficiency rate of 30.21% for tin concentrate, 15.91% for copper concentrate, and 72.72% for zinc concentrate [9][14]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 42.577 billion CNY, 43.285 billion CNY, and 43.993 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1.4%, 1.7%, and 1.6% respectively [15][4]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 is 2.392 billion CNY, 2.603 billion CNY, and 2.815 billion CNY, with growth rates of 65.6%, 8.8%, and 8.1% respectively [15][4].