招商公路（001965）：业绩短期承压，招商中铁并表营收大幅增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but the consolidation with China Merchants Railway has led to significant revenue growth [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 12.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.62%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 5.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.35% [6] - The company is focusing on its core business and has successfully completed the transition of the management of the Road King asset package, adding 276 kilometers of operational mileage [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 9.73 billion yuan (2023), 12.71 billion yuan (2024), 12.90 billion yuan (2025E), 13.23 billion yuan (2026E), and 13.60 billion yuan (2027E) [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.77 billion yuan (2023), 5.32 billion yuan (2024), 5.74 billion yuan (2025E), 6.19 billion yuan (2026E), and 6.70 billion yuan (2027E) [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.40% (2023), 7.47% (2024), 7.65% (2025E), 7.84% (2026E), and 8.05% (2027E) [5] Market Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 34.09% in 2024, a decrease of 2.87 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to asset optimization and adverse weather conditions [6] - The company’s operating expenses increased due to the consolidation with China Merchants Railway, with a total expense ratio of 20.92% in 2024, up by 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing expansion strategies and has made progress on various upgrade and expansion projects, including the completion of internal project approvals for the Ningbo-Taizhou-Wenzhou Expressway southern section [6] - The company has also completed the acquisition of the remaining 40% equity in Hunan Yonglan Expressway and is advancing the preliminary engineering for several other projects [6]