Guangzhou Restaurant(603043) 天风证券·2025-04-08 03:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [7][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.12 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.55%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.3% to 490 million yuan [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, supported by a stock incentive plan [4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.80 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 55.28% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Breakdown: - Food manufacturing revenue was 3.57 billion yuan, up 1.0% year-on-year, while restaurant service revenue reached 1.46 billion yuan, up 15.2% [2]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue from mooncake and frozen food segments, with mooncake revenue at 1.64 billion yuan, down 1.95% [2]. - Profitability Metrics: - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 31.7%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 9.6%, down 1.6 percentage points [4]. - Earnings Forecast: - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 550 million yuan, 620 million yuan, and 690 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [4][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a traditional "food + restaurant" brand in China, with a focus on product innovation and market expansion [4]. - The company is enhancing its national restaurant layout, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, with new store openings and acquisitions [2].