Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) with a target price of HKD 40.50 [2][8] Core Views - The impact of the recent US tariff adjustments on the company's revenue is expected to be limited, with a projected direct revenue impact of approximately 2.2% if the company absorbs 50% of the new tariffs [2][8] - Customer order volumes for Q1 2025 are in line with the company's expectations, indicating that revenue is likely to remain at a high level [2] - The company has a well-established global production capacity and a diversified market strategy to mitigate tariff risks [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 2,061 million in 2024 to HKD 3,538 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from HKD 428 million in 2024 to HKD 839 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24.6% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 1.00 in 2024 to HKD 1.75 in 2027 [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the lens industry, actively developing its smart glasses segment as a second growth curve [8] - The US market accounted for 13% of the company's revenue in 2024, with a high markup in the lens distribution channel, making it less sensitive to price increases due to tariffs [8] - The company is expanding its production capacity in Thailand to enhance supply chain resilience and reduce tariff risks [8] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19.4 in 2024 to 11.2 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 5.2 in 2024 to 2.1 in 2027, further supporting the investment case [4]
康耐特光学（02276）：重大事项点评：关税影响较小，25Q1业绩预计表现亮眼