Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.80 CNY, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of 8.21 CNY [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company has completed a significant asset acquisition, which is expected to gradually release synergies and enhance its competitive position in the global liquid milk industry [8]. - The liquid milk industry is experiencing continuous expansion, with a stable cost environment for raw materials, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the company [8]. - Adjustments to gross margin and expense assumptions lead to revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected profits of 189 million CNY, 206 million CNY, and 218 million CNY respectively [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,737 million CNY in 2023 to 2,079 million CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.9% [6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.7% in 2023 to 24.6% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6]. - The net profit margin is forecasted to stabilize around 10.5% from 2024 onwards, reflecting consistent profitability [6]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is positioned as the largest domestic manufacturer of aseptic paper-based packaging, poised to benefit from the trend of domestic substitution in the industry [9]. - The DCF valuation method applied suggests a target price of 9.80 CNY, indicating a favorable investment opportunity based on projected cash flows [10].
新巨丰（301296）：重大资产购买已实施完成，期待协同效应逐步释放