华发股份（600325）：营收下降利润承压，但销售排名持续提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit due to the downturn in the real estate market, with 2024 projected revenue of 60 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.95 billion yuan, down 48% year-on-year [1][9] - Despite the challenges, the company has improved its sales ranking, achieving a signed sales amount of 105.4 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining a scale above 100 billion yuan for five consecutive years, and moving up four places to rank 10th in the industry [2][14] - The company is focusing on core cities for investment, acquiring six new land parcels in major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Xi'an, and has a substantial land reserve of 3.77 million square meters [2][14] - The company is diversifying its business to enhance resilience, with commercial rental income increasing by 15% year-on-year to 0.79 billion yuan and property service income rising by 19% year-on-year to 1.68 billion yuan [2][22] - Financially, the company maintains a healthy status with a financing cost of 5.22%, a positive operating cash flow of 15.9 billion yuan, and a debt structure that continues to improve [3][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to have a gross profit margin of 14.3%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 1.6%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1][9] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.104 yuan per share, translating to a payout ratio of 30% for 2024 [1][9] Sales and Market Position - The company’s signed sales area in 2024 is projected to be 3.7 million square meters, down 8% year-on-year, but it still holds a strong market position with a significant backlog of pre-receivables amounting to 81.8 billion yuan [2][14] Future Projections - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted, with expected revenues of 61.3 billion yuan and 66.2 billion yuan, and net profits of 1.09 billion yuan and 1.29 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [3][26]