信达国际港股晨报快-2025-04-08

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to test the low of 18,671 points as the government sets the 2025 GDP growth target at around 5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to boost investor confidence in economic growth for 2025 [1] - The trade war with the US is intensifying, with new tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, which could negatively impact investment sentiment and corporate earnings [1][2] Sector Outlook - High-yield stocks are favored in the current volatile market as investors seek safe havens amid rising expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates but may reduce them twice this year, reflecting increased inflation risks and economic uncertainty [2] Company News - China Railway (1766) anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first quarter, expected to rise over 1.8 times compared to the previous year [5][8] - China Aluminum (2600) also expects a profit increase of over 53% for the first quarter [5][8] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919) forecasts a 73% increase in net profit for the first quarter [5][8] Economic Policies - The Chinese government is discussing preemptive economic stimulus measures in response to the US tariffs, focusing on consumption and export support [6][7] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has raised the upper limit for insurance fund equity asset allocation to support the capital market and real economy [7] Trade Relations - The US is threatening to impose a 50% tariff on Chinese goods unless retaliatory tariffs are lifted, which could escalate trade tensions further [6] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on US imports starting April 15, responding to US tariffs on steel and aluminum [6] Investment Trends - The global AI investment is projected to reach $315.8 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.9% expected until 2028 [7] - Major Chinese state-owned enterprises are increasing their investments in stocks and ETFs to stabilize the market [7][8]