AKESO(09926) 海通国际证券·2025-04-08 08:03Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.13 billion in 2024, a decrease of 53.1%, primarily due to a reduction in licensing revenue, while commercial sales revenue increased by 24.9% to RMB 2.00 billion [3][16]. - The company has effectively managed costs, with a significant decline in expense ratios, leading to a narrowed operating net loss of RMB 660 million, down 16.7% year-over-year [4][18]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing steadily, with key programs such as Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab making progress in various clinical trials [5][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 3.41 billion, RMB 5.45 billion, and RMB 7.31 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 60% and 34% in subsequent years [11][34]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 50 million [11][34]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain high, with estimates of 92.3% in 2025 and 92.9% in 2027 [15]. Clinical Pipeline Progress - Cadonilimab is involved in multiple clinical trials, including adjuvant treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma and combination therapies for non-small cell lung cancer [5][19]. - Ivonescimab is also progressing in various trials, including first-line treatments for biliary tract cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma [20][23]. - The company has several NDA/sNDA approvals expected in 2025, which could significantly impact revenue and market position [9][25]. Cost Management - The company has demonstrated excellent cost management, with R&D expenses decreasing by 5.3% due to the transition of certain clinical research services to in-house execution [4][18]. - Selling expenses grew at a lower rate than commercial sales revenue, resulting in a decline in the selling expense ratio by 5.5 percentage points [4][18]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 96.6 per share based on a DCF model, reflecting a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [11][34].