CMES(601872) 中银国际·2025-04-08 08:46Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4][6] Core Views - The company's oil transportation revenue is under pressure, but its profitability remains resilient. The dry bulk segment shows significant profit growth driven by both volume and price increases, while the container shipping segment benefits from structural optimization leading to improved profit margins [4][9] - For 2024, the company reported a slight decline in revenue to RMB 25.799 billion, down 0.32% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 5.59% to RMB 5.107 billion. The performance in the fourth quarter showed a significant rebound, with net profit reaching RMB 1.738 billion, a 99.31% increase quarter-on-quarter [9][10] - The outlook for 2025 suggests a tightening supply-demand balance in the oil tanker market, with expectations for VLCCs to regain leadership due to accelerated scrapping of older vessels and trade restructuring. The dry bulk segment is expected to see steady demand growth, while container shipping may face short-term oversupply pressures but is projected to maintain stable growth in trade volume [9][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 257.99 billion, a slight decrease of 0.32% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 51.07 billion, an increase of 5.59%. The breakdown by business segments shows net profits of RMB 26.35 billion for oil transport, RMB 15.48 billion for dry bulk, RMB 13.14 billion for container shipping, and RMB 3.37 billion for roll-on/roll-off services [4][9] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be RMB 59.10 billion, RMB 70.72 billion, and RMB 78.46 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15.7%, 19.7%, and 10.9% respectively [6][10] Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to RMB 0.73, RMB 0.87, and RMB 0.96, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.0, 6.7, and 6.0 [6][10] - The company maintains a strong outlook for profitability driven by the dual cycles of oil and dry bulk markets, which are expected to provide earnings elasticity [6][9]