PETROCHINA(SH:601857) EBSCN·2025-04-08 09:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [6]. Core Views - The major shareholder, China National Petroleum Corporation, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between RMB 28 billion and RMB 56 billion, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term development [1][2]. - The company demonstrates resilience in operations amid oil price fluctuations, with a projected average Brent crude oil price of USD 79.86 per barrel in 2024, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year. The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 173 billion in 2025, marking a 2.0% year-on-year increase, and maintain free cash flow above RMB 100 billion for three consecutive years [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing exploration and production capabilities, with a target for oil and gas equivalent reserve replacement rate of 98.2% in 2024, an increase of 15.7 percentage points year-on-year. Oil production is expected to reach 941.8 million barrels, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, while natural gas production is projected to rise by 4.1% to 145.4 billion cubic meters [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - A-shares: Buy (maintained) at a current price of RMB 7.70 - H-shares: Buy (maintained) at a current price of HKD 5.47 [6]. Financial Forecasts - The company expects revenues to decline from RMB 30,110 million in 2023 to RMB 28,981 million in 2025, with a net profit increase from RMB 1,611 million in 2023 to RMB 1,730 million in 2025 [5][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 0.88 in 2023 to RMB 0.95 in 2025 [5][11]. Operational Highlights - The company is enhancing its integrated industrial chain advantages to withstand oil price volatility, with a focus on refining and chemical transformation [2][3]. - The company aims to optimize its natural gas business and improve profitability, with a projected 25.5% year-on-year increase in natural gas sales operating profit for 2024 [3].