KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Orient Securities·2025-04-08 09:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1853.36 CNY per share [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance aligns with expectations, and there is optimism regarding its medium to long-term development [2]. - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, predicting earnings per share of 73.20 CNY, 81.42 CNY, and 91.00 CNY for 2025-2027 [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 147,694 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.0%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 170,899 million CNY, 185,322 million CNY, 205,199 million CNY, and 225,778 million CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 15.7%, 8.4%, 10.7%, and 10.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 74,734 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%. The projected net profits for the following years are 86,228 million CNY, 91,960 million CNY, 102,276 million CNY, and 114,314 million CNY, with growth rates of 15.4%, 6.6%, 11.2%, and 11.8% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 91.9%, remaining stable over the forecast period [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The company expects stable pricing for its flagship products while anticipating growth from non-standard and series products. The revenue from Moutai liquor is projected at 1,459.28 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, while series liquor revenue is expected to reach 246.84 million CNY, growing by 19.7% [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on dual drivers of product sales through Moutai liquor and series liquor, alongside channel collaboration between wholesale and direct sales, which is expected to support stable performance amid a challenging consumption environment [8].