XCMG(SZ:000425) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-04-08 10:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has announced a share buyback plan of RMB 1.8-3.6 billion, reflecting confidence in its development and recognition of its own value [2] - The construction machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit [3][4] - The company is positioned to become a global leader in the engineering machinery sector, currently ranked fourth globally and first in China [4] - The company's asset quality has improved, and its profitability is notable, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 9% for Q3 2024 [5] - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% for net profit from 2023 to 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Share Buyback and Confidence - The company plans to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding RMB 13 per share, totaling between RMB 1.8 billion and RMB 3.6 billion, which will account for approximately 1.17%-2.34% of its total share capital [2] Industry Recovery - Domestic excavator sales in March reached 19,517 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%, while total sales for the first quarter were 36,562 units, up 38% year-on-year [3] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in March increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the domestic market [4] Company Positioning and Product Range - The company maintains a comprehensive product range and is expected to gradually enter the global top three in the engineering machinery sector [4] - The company leads in various categories, including cranes and concrete machinery, and ranks sixth globally in excavators [4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s financing lease obligations decreased by 18% year-on-year, and its net profit margin has shown consistent improvement [5] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 909 billion, RMB 1,047 billion, and RMB 1,279 billion, with net profits expected to be RMB 62 billion, RMB 78 billion, and RMB 97 billion respectively [6]