国药一致（000028）：业绩短期承压，静待战略调整成果

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 28.63 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is under pressure due to policy impacts such as DRG and outpatient coordination, as well as delays in accounts receivable collections and significant impairment provisions [1] - The company is expected to improve its performance as the impact of policies fades and the results of its strategic adjustments for high-quality development become evident [1] - The distribution business showed stable revenue growth of 2.0% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 12.7% due to delayed collections and increased funding costs [2] - The retail segment faced challenges with a significant drop in net profit, attributed to industry policy changes and increased competition, leading to substantial impairment provisions [3] - The company has shifted its strategic focus from "scale growth" to "high-quality development," closing over 1,270 underperforming stores [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 743.78 million RMB, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.42 million RMB, down 59.8% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 11.09%, a slight decline of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to medical reform policies and increased competition [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a recovery in net profit, with estimates of 14.1 million RMB, 14.4 million RMB, and 14.6 million RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 120% in 2025 [5] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 2.54 RMB, with corresponding PE ratios for different segments being 14x for retail, 9x for wholesale, and 15x for investment income [5] Business Segments - The distribution business generated revenue of 529.84 million RMB in 2024, with a net profit of 9.22 million RMB, reflecting a 2.0% increase in revenue but a 12.7% decrease in profit [2] - The retail segment, specifically Guoda Pharmacy, reported revenue of 223.57 million RMB and a net loss of 10.72 million RMB, with a net profit margin of -4.94% [3] Valuation Metrics - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 13.38 billion RMB, with a closing price of 24.04 RMB as of April 7 [8] - The average daily trading volume over the past six months is 138.33 million RMB [8]