SDHS(600350) 华源证券·2025-04-08 11:14Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment in the stock [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - Shandong Expressway is a leading player in the toll road and bridge sector, focusing on the investment and operation of transportation infrastructure, with a robust expansion strategy in the upstream and downstream value chain [5][9]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining an average dividend payout ratio of 65.37% from 2019 to 2023, with a commitment to not distribute less than 60% of net profit as dividends from 2020 to 2024 [5][26]. - The company is expected to see stable growth in revenue and profit, with projected net profits of 3,216 million, 3,378 million, and 3,561 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in traffic demand and operational efficiency [6][51]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shandong Expressway, established in 1999 and listed in 2002, has expanded its operational toll road mileage from 1,452 kilometers in 2010 to 2,864 kilometers by 2024, achieving a CAGR of 5.36% [13][18]. - The company is controlled by the state-owned Shandong Expressway Group, which holds 70.31% of the shares, providing a strong backing for its operations [13][14]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue CAGR of 17.09% and a net profit CAGR of 2.72% from 2014 to 2023, with total assets growing at a CAGR of 14.71% [18]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19,901 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.94%, while net profit decreased by 5.70% to 2,516 million RMB due to adverse weather conditions and traffic diversions [18][20]. Business Segments - The toll road business is the core revenue driver, contributing 37.29% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, with a gross profit margin of 53.78% [15][21]. - The company has diversified its operations into various sectors, including construction services, electrical engineering, and railway transportation, with the latter contributing 9.50% to total revenue in the first half of 2024 [15][39]. Investment Strategy - The company employs an "investment + management" model to expand its national highway network, managing a total of 2,864 kilometers of toll road assets across multiple provinces [28][32]. - Shandong Expressway has made strategic investments in sectors such as finance, environmental protection, and smart transportation, enhancing its growth potential [34][35]. Profitability Forecast - The company anticipates stable revenue growth driven by a recovery in traffic demand and ongoing expansion of its toll road assets, with expected net profits showing modest growth from 2025 to 2027 [47][51].