Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in its core business of atomization, with promising growth in the HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment. The revenue growth trend is anticipated to continue into 2025, supported by increased demand for compliant products due to regulatory changes in the US and Europe [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a pre-tax profit of 255 million RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 36.3%, and a post-tax profit of 192 million RMB, down 43.4% year-over-year. This decline is attributed to increased business investments and a higher tax rate [1] - For 2025, the company expects revenues to reach 12.96 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 9.82% compared to 2024 [6] Business Segments - In the To B (business-to-business) segment, the company anticipates revenue recovery driven by stricter enforcement of regulations on non-compliant electronic vapor products in the US and increased demand for compliant products in Europe. Revenue growth in the US and Europe is projected at 5.2% and 14.4% respectively for the second half of 2024 [2] - The To C (business-to-consumer) segment is expected to see continued strong performance from the company's proprietary brand, VAPORESSO, with projected revenue of 2.48 billion RMB in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 34.0% [2] HNB Business - The company has made significant progress with its HNB business, particularly with the launch of new products by a major client, British American Tobacco (BAT). The Glo Hilo series is expected to be introduced to additional markets in 2025-2026, indicating substantial growth potential for the company [3] - The global HNB market was valued at 34.463 billion USD in 2023, with PMI holding a market share of 71% and BAT at 15.3%, highlighting the competitive landscape and growth opportunities for the company [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 1.323 billion RMB, 2.140 billion RMB, and 2.762 billion RMB respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.21 RMB for 2025, 0.35 RMB for 2026, and 0.45 RMB for 2027 [4][6] - The target price is set at 16.25 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 43 times the expected EPS of 0.36 RMB for 2026 [4]
思摩尔国际（06969）：看好雾化主业修复，HNB成长可期