ICBC(601398) 天风证券·2025-04-08 14:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 7.88 CNY, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current price of 6.76 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company's profit continues to recover, with a reported revenue of approximately 821.8 billion CNY for 2024, showing a year-over-year decline of 2.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 365.9 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 0.51% year-over-year [2][4]. - The bank's net interest income for 2024 is 637.4 billion CNY, down 2.69% year-over-year, while non-interest income decreased by 1.95% to 184.4 billion CNY [2][9]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio reduced to 1.34% by the end of 2024, down from previous periods [24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 821.8 billion CNY in 2024, with a net interest income of 637.4 billion CNY, accounting for 77.6% of total revenue, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2][9]. - The net profit for 2024 is 365.9 billion CNY, with quarterly performance showing a trend of recovery: Q1 (-2.78%), H1 (-1.89%), first three quarters (+0.13%), and full year (+0.51%) [2][4]. Asset and Liability Management - By the end of 2024, the bank's interest-earning assets totaled 47.52 trillion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 2.7%. Corporate loans increased by 8.3%, with strong growth in sectors such as mining and real estate [17][18]. - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities improved to 1.94%, a decrease of 10 basis points from mid-2024, supported by a reduction in deposit rates [12][18]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.34% by the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 214.9%, indicating a healthy asset quality [24][26]. - The overdue loan ratio increased slightly to 1.43%, reflecting some pressure on asset quality despite the overall improvement [24]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit growth is 0.82%, 2.64%, and 3.40% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BPS) estimates of 11.05, 11.84, and 12.60 CNY [4][26].