农业银行（601288）：盈利持续向上

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank is "Buy" with a target price of 6.16 CNY, representing a potential upside of 21% from the current price of 5.11 CNY [6]. Core Views - Agricultural Bank's revenue and profit have shown a continuous recovery in 2024, with total revenue approximately 710.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282.1 billion CNY, up 4.72% year-on-year [2][10]. - The bank's net interest income has increased to 580.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.56%, with the proportion of net interest income in total revenue rising to 81.7% [2][10]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio reduced to 1.30% by the end of 2024, showing improvements compared to previous periods [26]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Agricultural Bank's revenue structure shows a recovery in net interest income, which constitutes 81.7% of total revenue, while non-interest income reached 129.9 billion CNY, growing by 5.51% year-on-year [2][10]. - The bank's net interest margin recorded 1.42%, down 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 18 basis points year-on-year [4][14]. - The bank's total assets increased by 5.3% year-on-year, with a significant growth in corporate loans by 10.2% [20][21]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 2.25%, 4.12%, and 4.31% respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 7.95 CNY, 8.50 CNY, and 9.02 CNY [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 6.34 in 2024 to 5.71 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation [5]. Asset Quality - By the end of 2024, the non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.30%, with a provision coverage ratio of 299.6% [26][28]. - The overdue loan ratio increased slightly to 1.18%, indicating some pressure in the retail loan segment, particularly in personal housing loans [26][28]. Loan and Deposit Structure - The bank's total interest-bearing liabilities grew by 9.8% year-on-year, with a significant portion coming from deposits, which accounted for 76.0% of total liabilities [21][24]. - The retail loan segment showed a notable increase in personal operating loans, which surged by 234% year-on-year, while personal housing loans faced a decline of 3.6% [20][23].