BABA(HK:09988) Guohai Securities·2025-04-08 15:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1][21]. Core Insights - The live commerce industry is at a pivotal moment, with 2024 marking a turning point due to regulatory policies and a shift towards quality-driven live streaming [7][14]. - Taobao Live is leading the new "Quality Live Streaming" model, emphasizing professional hosts, brand merchandise, and platform guarantees [15][18]. - The report highlights a significant investment of 11 billion yuan by Taobao Live in 2025, aiming for a doubling of transaction volume and user base over two years [18][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Quality Live Streaming as a Turning Point - The live commerce sector is facing challenges that necessitate a demand for quality live streaming, driven by regulatory changes and consumer trust issues [14][16]. - Taobao Live's model combines professional hosts, a vast inventory of quality brands, and robust platform support to ensure consumer protection [15][19]. - In 2024, Taobao Live reported over 200 million active buyers, with core host transactions increasing by 31% year-on-year [16][17]. 2. New Phase of Quality Live Streaming - Taobao Live's strategy for 2025 includes a substantial investment of 11 billion yuan, with a target of over 50% growth in transaction speed and doubling user numbers [18][21]. - The platform aims to enhance user growth by leveraging its extensive ecosystem, which includes 1 billion active buyers across Alibaba's platforms [18][19]. - The report notes that Taobao Live will continue to expand its quality merchandise pool and improve its platform mechanisms to drive user engagement [19][20]. 3. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the overseas industry, suggesting that the shift towards quality live streaming presents significant investment opportunities [21]. - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) is highlighted as a key stock recommendation, benefiting from steady commercialization strategies and growth in its cloud business [22][23].