XCMG(SZ:000425) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-08 15:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][14]. Core Views - The company's share repurchase announcement reflects confidence in long-term performance, with a planned repurchase amount between 1.8 billion and 3.6 billion RMB, at a maximum price of 13 RMB per share, aimed at enhancing investor confidence and supporting employee stock ownership plans [3][4]. - The domestic excavator market is recovering faster than expected, with Q1 2025 sales reaching 19,517 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%. The company, as a leading player in the excavator industry, is well-positioned to benefit from this demand recovery [4][5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 90.32 billion, 100.66 billion, and 115.46 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.95 billion, 7.80 billion, and 10.26 billion RMB. The price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted at 16, 12, and 9 times for the same periods [6][11]. - The company has shown strong leadership in various sectors, holding the top position in 16 categories of machinery in China and maintaining a leading global position in several others, including mobile cranes and concrete machinery [5]. Market Analysis - The report indicates a strong recovery in the domestic excavator market, with the company expected to fully benefit from the upward cycle in domestic demand [4]. - The company's robust market position is supported by its leading share in multiple machinery categories, ensuring a solid competitive advantage [5].