ZJJH(SH:600160) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-09 00:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][4] Core Views - The refrigerant prices have been continuously increasing, leading to significant growth in the company's performance in the first quarter of 2025, with expected net profit growth of 145%-171% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is positioned as a leader in the fluorochemical industry, benefiting from a favorable long-term market cycle for refrigerants due to supply constraints and increasing demand [3][4] - The controlling shareholder's plan to increase their stake in the company reflects confidence in its long-term development [3][16] Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company expects a net profit of 7.6-8.4 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 145%-171%, driven by rising refrigerant prices [2][5] - The sales volume of refrigerants reached 69,800 tons in Q1 2025, a 4% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of 37,500 yuan per ton, up 58% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter [5][7] Industry Outlook - The refrigerant market is in a long-term boom cycle, with the company holding the largest domestic quota for refrigerants, which positions it to benefit from ongoing price increases [4][33] - The fluoropolymer market is experiencing a "strong supply, weak demand" situation, with limited new capacity expected in 2025, leading to price stabilization [10][11] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to be 26.578 billion yuan in 2024, 34.628 billion yuan in 2025, and 41.375 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.999 billion yuan, 4.114 billion yuan, and 4.823 billion yuan [4][40] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2024, 1.52 yuan in 2025, and 1.79 yuan in 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 30.32, 14.76, and 12.54 respectively [4][40]