Air China(SH:601111) CMS·2025-04-09 01:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China National Aviation Holdings (601111.SH) [2] Core Views - In 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of CNY 166.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. The net loss attributable to shareholders is projected at CNY 240 million, a reduction of approximately CNY 800 million compared to the previous year [6][7] - The report highlights that the company benefited from a decrease in oil prices, leading to a positive gross profit margin in Q4. The gross profit for the year is expected to reach CNY 8.5 billion, with a gross margin of 5.1% [6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery of international flights and improved operational efficiency, with expectations of net profits of CNY 3.5 billion, CNY 9.8 billion, and CNY 10.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total shares outstanding: 17,448 million [2] - Current share price: CNY 7.0 [2] - Total market capitalization: CNY 122.1 billion [2] - Return on equity (ROE): -0.5% [2] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 88.2% [2] - Major shareholder: China National Aviation Group Co., Ltd., holding 42.53% [2] Performance Metrics - In 2024, the company’s passenger revenue is expected to be CNY 151.8 billion, up 16.3% year-on-year, while cargo revenue is projected at CNY 7.4 billion, a significant increase of 78.0% [6] - The company’s aircraft utilization rate is expected to average 8.90 hours per day, an increase of 9% year-on-year [6] - The passenger load factor is anticipated to improve by 6.6 percentage points to 79.85% for the year [6] Cost and Expense Analysis - The report indicates a 7% decrease in aviation fuel prices, with fuel costs increasing by 15% despite a 21.7% growth in available seat kilometers (ASK) [6] - Financial expenses are expected to decrease, with total financial costs projected at CNY 6.77 billion, down approximately CNY 700 million year-on-year [6] Long-term Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantage due to its strategic positioning at key airport hubs, which cover economically developed and densely populated regions in China [6] - The report suggests that the company will continue to benefit from the recovery of business travel and international long-haul routes, reinforcing its long-term growth potential [6]