ZJJH(SH:600160) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-09 02:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with estimates ranging from 760 million to 840 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 145% to 171% [7]. - The controlling shareholder's recent stock purchase reflects confidence in the company's future performance [7]. - The average price of refrigerants has significantly increased, suggesting a positive trend for the second quarter [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 20,655 million yuan in 2023 to 25,432 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.4% [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 944 million yuan in 2023 to 4,163 million yuan in 2025, indicating a substantial growth trajectory [6][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.35 yuan in 2023 to 1.54 yuan in 2025 [6][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 5.9% in 2023 to 19.4% in 2025 [6][9]. Segment Analysis - The refrigerant segment is expected to see a price increase due to reduced inventory levels and rising demand, with sales volume in Q1 2025 reaching 69,800 tons [7]. - The fluorinated polymer segment showed a sales volume of 11,000 tons in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10% [7]. - The fluorochemical raw materials segment reported a sales volume of 86,900 tons, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [7].