Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 15.6 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of 13.38 CNY [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a 5% decline in net profit excluding non-recurring items in 2024, while maintaining a stable dividend payout ratio of 53.44% [2][7]. - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 12,711 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.6%, primarily due to the consolidation of招商中铁 at the end of 2023 [3][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline by 21.3% in 2024, with a gradual recovery expected in the following years [3][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024: 12,711 million CNY - 2025: 12,889 million CNY (1.4% growth) - 2026: 13,474 million CNY (4.5% growth) - 2027: 14,113 million CNY (4.7% growth) [3][8] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024: 5,322 million CNY - 2025: 5,567 million CNY (4.6% growth) - 2026: 5,930 million CNY (6.5% growth) - 2027: 6,320 million CNY (6.6% growth) [3][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: 0.78 CNY - 2025: 0.82 CNY - 2026: 0.87 CNY - 2027: 0.93 CNY [3][8] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17 in 2024 to 14 in 2027 [3][8]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is expected to remain stable around 1.3 to 1.1 over the forecast period [3][8]. Operational Highlights - The company’s total operational road mileage increased from 14,745 kilometers in 2023 to 14,785 kilometers in 2024, with a significant revenue increase in the investment and operation segment [7]. - The traffic volume for 2024 is expected to be 15,920 million vehicles, with toll revenue projected at 9,450 million CNY, both showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [7]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.17 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 28.44 billion CNY, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 3.12% based on the current stock price [7].
招商公路（001965）：2024年报点评：24年扣非净利润下滑5%，分红比例稳定