小熊电器2024年报点评：收入利润超预期改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected revenue and profit improvements for 2024 [6] - The integration of Roman's financials contributed more than anticipated to revenue [7] - Profitability has been recovering quarter by quarter since Q2 [8] - The company is expected to benefit from national subsidies in 2025 and the expansion of its own brand overseas, which is likely to contribute to revenue growth, with profitability improving due to lower base effects and cost control [9] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Q4 revenue reached 1.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year [12] - For the full year 2024, revenue was 4.76 billion yuan, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 290 million yuan, down 35.4% year-on-year [12] - Roman achieved revenue of 610 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, exceeding performance commitments [12] Future Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.244 billion yuan, 5.671 billion yuan, and 6.061 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 10.2%, 8.2%, and 6.9% respectively [10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 382 million yuan, 453 million yuan, and 513 million yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth of 32.8%, 18.6%, and 13.3% respectively [10] - The company maintains a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 16, 14, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] Key Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q4 and the full year was 35.3% and 35.6% respectively, with expectations for stabilization in Q4 due to national subsidies [12] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.2%, 11.9%, 12.4%, and 12.3% for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [13] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.86 yuan, 2.43 yuan, 2.89 yuan, and 3.27 yuan for the years 2024 to 2027 [13]