MCC(SH:601618) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-09 07:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][20] Core Views - The company is experiencing revenue and profit pressure due to weak downstream industry conditions, but it is actively optimizing its business structure and fully provisioning for impairments to release potential risks [3][20][8] - The company has seen a significant increase in new overseas contracts, with a total new contract amount of 1,248.3 billion yuan, up 12.4% year-on-year, and overseas contracts increasing by 47.8% [12][8] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is 9.69%, remaining stable year-on-year, although the fourth quarter gross margin dropped to 8.19% due to poor year-end project settlements [14][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 552 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.75 billion yuan, down 22.2% [8][4] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 139.4 billion yuan, a decline of 16.3% year-on-year, with a slight net loss of 0.85 billion yuan [8][4] Business Structure and Contracts - The metallurgical construction segment, as the company's core business, showed resilience with revenue of 109.1 billion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year, while the housing and municipal infrastructure engineering segments contracted significantly, generating 392.3 billion yuan, down 17.3% [12][8] Cash Flow and Expenses - Operating cash flow improved by 33.2% year-on-year, reaching 7.85 billion yuan, with a collection ratio of 77.7% [17][2] - The company has reduced R&D expenses significantly, contributing to a trend of stabilizing overall profitability [14][2] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for the next three years is 6.69 billion yuan, 6.84 billion yuan, and 6.93 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.32 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.33 yuan [3][20]