AVIC SAC(SH:600760) Zhongyuan Securities·2025-04-09 08:48Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [27]. Core Views - The company, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760), reported a total revenue of 42.837 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.86% to 3.394 billion yuan [3][4]. - The fourth quarter saw a significant recovery in orders, leading to a substantial increase in performance, with a quarterly revenue of 17.54 billion yuan, up 51% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.58 billion yuan, up 145% [4]. - The company is positioned as a key player in China's aviation industry, with ongoing demand for main models and new products gaining attention, suggesting strong growth potential [11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 12.47%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 7.97%, up 1.46 percentage points [7]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative at -3.742 billion yuan, an improvement from -4.393 billion yuan in the previous year [3][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.6 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [3]. Business Segment Performance - The main subsidiary, Shenyang Aircraft Company, generated revenue of 41.34 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 12.7% to 3.34 billion yuan [5]. - Jihang Company reported a revenue of 1.52 billion yuan, a significant increase of 56.8%, with net profit soaring by 253% to 30 million yuan [5]. Future Outlook and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 50.965 billion yuan, 58.610 billion yuan, and 65.654 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.063 billion yuan, 4.788 billion yuan, and 5.503 billion yuan [12][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a low valuation level historically, with a PE ratio projected to decrease from 28.49X in 2025 to 21.03X in 2027 [12].