Changshu Bank(601128) Donghai Securities·2025-04-09 08:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong control over liability costs and prudent asset quality management by the company [1] - The company reported a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the total asset size was 366.582 billion yuan, an increase of 9.61% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio at 0.77% as of Q4 2024, unchanged from Q3 2024. Retail and corporate loan NPL ratios were 0.94% and 0.65%, respectively [3] - The report indicates that the company has increased its efforts in non-performing loan recovery and write-offs, with 1.740 billion yuan of non-performing loans written off in the second half of 2024, compared to 0.968 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Individual loan growth has been weak, consistent with industry trends, while deposit growth remains strong. The company’s deposit absorption continued to grow at a faster pace than the M2 growth rate [6] - The report notes that the company has adjusted its lending strategy to be more cautious in the face of rising retail loan risks, particularly in personal loans and credit cards [6] Interest Margin and Profitability - The net interest margin (NIM) has continued to narrow, with a quarterly NIM of 2.59% in Q4 2024, down from 2.67% in Q3 2024. The company has taken steps to manage deposit costs, including lowering deposit rates [6][7] - Investment income has performed well, driven by a bond bull market, with Q4 investment income and fair value changes amounting to 0.407 billion yuan, significantly higher than 0.149 billion yuan in the same period last year [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 11.585 billion yuan in 2025, 12.609 billion yuan in 2026, and 13.857 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 4.320 billion yuan, 4.782 billion yuan, and 5.268 billion yuan [8] - The report anticipates a stable performance due to a solid provisioning base and the potential for continued growth in the small and micro retail market [7][8]