KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongxing Securities·2025-04-09 09:46Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, indicating a strong expectation for the company's performance relative to market benchmarks [4]. Core Views - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 174.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion, up 15.38% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 51.02 billion, growing 12.77% year-on-year, with net profit of 25.40 billion, an increase of 16.21% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the upward trend in the price of Moutai liquor and series liquor, with Moutai liquor revenue reaching 145.93 billion, a 15.28% increase year-on-year, and series liquor revenue at 24.68 billion, up 19.65% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is focusing more on offline channels, with direct sales channel revenue at 74.84 billion, growing 11.32% year-on-year, while the iMoutai platform saw a decline of 10.51% [2]. Financial Forecasts - For 2025, the company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9%, with a net profit growth of 9.54%, leading to an expected EPS of 75.19. The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 19.95 times earnings [2][3]. - The financial indicators predict a steady growth trajectory, with revenue expected to reach 189.82 billion in 2025, and net profit projected at 94.45 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 9.54% [3][8]. Company Overview - Guizhou Moutai, established in 1951, is a leading high-end liquor company in China, renowned for its Moutai liquor, which is produced using traditional methods and has a significant global brand presence [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 1,940.83 billion, with a 52-week stock price range between 1,748.0 and 1,261.0 [5]. Analyst Insights - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a strong market share in the high-end liquor segment, particularly as the macroeconomic environment improves, suggesting that Guizhou Moutai can achieve growth exceeding the industry average [2][4].