Air China(SH:601111) Dongxing Securities·2025-04-09 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Air China [2][10]. Core Insights - In 2024, Air China achieved revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -237 million yuan, a reduction in losses of 77.32% compared to the same period in 2023 [3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in capacity and passenger load factor, with capacity up by 21.74% and load factor up by 6.63 percentage points to 79.85%, despite a 12.41% decline in revenue per passenger kilometer [3][4]. - The airline industry is expected to focus on stabilizing prices and improving revenue quality in 2025, as the Civil Aviation Administration of China emphasizes the need for better supply-demand matching and price regulation [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 166.699 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.14% [10]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated to be 3.975 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.23 yuan [10]. - The gross margin for passenger transport in 2024 was 4.13%, showing a slight increase from the previous year, but still at a low level [5]. Operational Insights - Domestic routes saw a capacity increase of 5.36% and a load factor improvement of 7.04 percentage points, while revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 9.70% [4]. - International routes experienced a 100.50% increase in capacity, with a load factor increase of 8.52 percentage points, but revenue per passenger kilometer fell by 22.63% [4]. - The company plans to introduce 47 new aircraft in 2025 while retiring 17, maintaining a low growth rate in fleet size to manage supply pressures [5].