YANKUANG ENERGY(SH:600188) Xinda Securities·2025-04-09 13:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The acquisition of a 51% stake in Northwest Mining Company for 14.066 billion yuan is a strategic move to enhance growth and resource reserves [3][4] - Northwest Mining has rich coal resource reserves with a total approved capacity of 61.05 million tons per year, and it operates in key regions such as Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, and southern Inner Mongolia [3] - The company is expected to see a growth in profitability in 2024, excluding non-recurring losses, with an adjusted net profit of approximately 2.4 billion yuan [3] - The acquisition is projected to increase Yanzhou Coal's revenue and net profit by approximately 12.37% and 7.68% respectively in 2024 [4] Financial Summary - In 2023, total revenue was 150.1 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 139.1 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 20.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 14.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual recovery thereafter [5] - The gross margin is projected to decline from 40.6% in 2023 to 35.8% in 2024, reflecting the impact of market conditions [5] - The company is expected to maintain a low P/E ratio of 9.59 in 2025, indicating potential undervaluation [5][6] Strategic Focus - Yanzhou Coal will continue to focus on its coal business and accelerate the implementation of its goal to reach 300 million tons of raw coal production [6] - The acquisition is seen as a key step towards achieving this production target and enhancing the company's profitability [4][6] - The company plans to actively seek high-quality coal resources in strategic energy bases such as Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, while also exploring overseas acquisition opportunities [6]