GREE(000651) 光大证券·2025-04-09 14:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances with a target price of 54.10 CNY [4][6] Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances is characterized by strong defensive attributes due to its high dividend yield of 6.6% and low foreign sales ratio of approximately 12% [2][4] - Recent operational changes, including board restructuring and digital channel reforms, are expected to drive performance improvements post tariff tensions [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company’s expected dividend yield for 2025 is 6.6%, based on a projected net profit of 32.9 billion CNY and a cash dividend payout ratio of 50% [2] - Gree's foreign revenue contribution remains low, with only about 12% from international markets, minimizing exposure to global trade tensions [2] Operational Changes - The board has undergone a restructuring with younger management taking key positions, indicating a shift towards a more dynamic leadership [3] - The planned share buyback by the distributor, Jinghai Huilian, reinforces the company's value proposition, confirming the attractiveness of its low stock price and high dividend yield [3] - The company is advancing its digital transformation, enhancing sales channel efficiency through the establishment of digital technology companies and nationwide promotion of a cloud-based system [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Gree's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 30.3 billion CNY, 32.9 billion CNY, and 36.4 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 8, and 7 [4][5] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 199.3 billion CNY, 216.9 billion CNY, and 232.8 billion CNY, reflecting a growth trajectory despite a slight decline in 2024 [5][10]