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新集能源(601918):热值提升大幅对冲煤价下行,Q1吨毛利实现同比上涨8元/吨

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the increase in coal quality has significantly offset the decline in coal prices, leading to a year-on-year increase in gross profit per ton of coal by 8 CNY in Q1 [5]. - The company has shown growth in both production and sales, with raw coal production increasing by 10.5% year-on-year to 5.54 million tons, and commodity coal production rising by 6.3% to 4.99 million tons [5]. - The report anticipates that the company's performance will be supported by the increase in coal quality and the rise in electricity generation, despite the current weak coal prices [9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 23.0% over the past 12 months, while the index itself has increased by 3.2% [3]. - As of April 8, 2025, the current stock price is 6.53 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 16.92 billion CNY [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 131.7 billion CNY, 145.9 billion CNY, and 175.7 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 3%, 11%, and 20% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 23.04 billion CNY in 2025, with a slight decrease of 4% from the previous year, followed by increases of 15% and 19% in the subsequent years [9]. Operational Highlights - The company has successfully increased its electricity generation by 47% year-on-year in Q1, with total electricity generation reaching 3.6 billion kWh [5]. - The report notes that the construction of power plants is progressing smoothly, enhancing the company's coal-electricity integration strategy [5].