Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-04-09 14:09Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: April 9, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Zhou Jiawei (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03133676) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of concerns about the global economic downturn risk caused by the mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US, the crude oil price has weakened significantly recently, and the macro - expectation has also turned weak. The actual effect of the reduction in ethylene glycol imports due to tariff policies is questionable. At the current valuation, the probability of domestic ethylene glycol enterprises reducing production due to poor efficiency is low. The macro - pessimistic expectation may accelerate the implementation of polyester production reduction plans. Under the expectation of balanced supply and reduced demand, the valuation of ethylene glycol is expected to be significantly pressured [4] Summary by Relevant Contents Polyester Price Range Forecast - Ethylene glycol price range (monthly): 3700 - 4300, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 24.35%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 80.2% - PX price range (monthly): 5400 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 37.80%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 100.0% - PTA price range (monthly): 3800 - 4400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 33.28%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 87.2% - Bottle chip price range (monthly): 5100 - 5600, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 26.31%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 87.9% [3] Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline in ethylene glycol price: - Short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4100 - 4200 - Buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% - Buy ethylene glycol futures to lock in procurement costs in advance when worried about price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3800 - 3900 [3] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations: - Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops, with a hedging ratio of 75% [3] Price and Spread Data - Price Changes: Brent crude oil decreased by 1.2 dollars/barrel on a daily basis and 12.9 dollars/barrel on a weekly basis. Most polyester - related products such as PX, PTA, EG, etc. also showed price declines [6] - Spread Changes: TA1 - 5 month spread increased by 36 yuan/ton on a daily basis and 50 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. EG1 - 5 month spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton on a daily basis and 16 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [8] Market Situation Analysis - Positive Factors: There are concentrated maintenance plans in April, and the supply - demand gap is clear after the US import volume is affected by tariffs - Negative Factors: US tariff policies impact terminal textile and clothing export demand, the US - Vietnam tariff negotiation restricts downstream product re - export trade, and ethylene glycol has a large inventory accumulation in the first quarter with high hidden inventory in factories [7] Profit and Sales Rate Data - Profit: POY profit increased by 70 yuan/ton on a daily basis and 394 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. Most polyester products showed profit increases - Sales Rate: The sales rate of polyester filament decreased by 14.3% on a daily basis and 94.8% on a weekly basis. The sales rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 8% on a daily basis and decreased by 40% on a weekly basis [8][9]