YANKUANG ENERGY(SH:600188) Xinda Securities·2025-04-09 14:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The acquisition of a 51% stake in Northwest Mining Company for CNY 14.066 billion is a strategic move to enhance growth and resource base [3][4] - Northwest Mining has rich coal resource reserves with a total approved capacity of 61.05 million tons per year, and it operates in key regions such as Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, and southern Inner Mongolia [3] - The company is expected to see a rebound in profitability in 2024, excluding non-recurring losses, with an adjusted net profit of approximately CNY 2.4 billion, indicating growth compared to 2023 [3] - The acquisition is projected to increase Yanzhou Coal's revenue and net profit by approximately 12.37% and 7.68% respectively in 2024 [4] - The deal is characterized by low cash outflow and attractive valuation metrics, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.69, which is lower than Yanzhou Coal's A-share PE of 8.8 [6] Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is reported at CNY 150.1 billion, with a projected decline to CNY 139.1 billion in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from CNY 20.1 billion in 2023 to CNY 14.4 billion in 2024, with a gradual recovery thereafter [5] - The gross margin is forecasted to decline from 40.6% in 2023 to 35.8% in 2024, stabilizing around 34% in the following years [5] - The company aims to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons, with the acquisition being a crucial step towards this goal [4][6]